Lucas Arthur

Laboratory for Nuclear Science and Policy, MIT

Zoom link: https://mit.zoom.us/j/99727454497

Abstract:

I present the results of Monte Carlo simulations of guidance errors for ballistic missiles in the near-Earth environment. Based on these simulations, I survey the applications and limitations of inertial navigation and global navigation satellite systems for missile guidance and analyze the contribution of each source of guidance error to the total miss distance, with and without maneuverability during the reentry phase. These results provide evidence that modern guidance technology with maneuverable reentry vehicles may enable reductions in ballistic missile warhead yield and arsenal size, without reducing overall system efficacy.

Bio:

Lucas Arthur is a Technical Associate in the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy in the Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT. He received his SB in physics with a minor in political science from MIT in 2021. His primary research interests center around the use of numerical simulations and probabilistic algorithms for inference, data analysis, and inverse problems. Much of his recent work has focused on assessing the accuracy of intercontinental ballistic missiles, simulating reentry vehicles, and characterizing the performance of inertial and satellite-based guidance and navigation systems.