Sharon Weiner

School of International Service, American University

Moritz Kütt

Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, University of Hamburg

Zoom link: https://mit.zoom.us/j/98112260157

Abstract:

Research on foreign policy decision making and behavioral economics argues that people frequently use heuristics, past experience, and emotion to insert significant irrationality into their decision making. This is especially true in situations of extreme uncertainty and stress. Decisions about nuclear use are typically characterized by both factors. Yet, deterrence theory assumes that decision makers can (and need to) rationally assess costs and benefits of their actions, including outcomes as incomprehensible as global nuclear war. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) - one leg of the U.S. nuclear triad - complicate the situation even further: Because their vulnerable to an enemy's first strike, nuclear strategy includes launch on warning, where missiles can be launched within minutes. This increases the chances a nuclear exchange will result from misperceptions or misunderstandings.

We will present and demonstrate a Virtual Reality (VR) experience simulating crisis decision making involving ICBMs. In our research project, the VR experience will be used as the basis for controlled observations and a set of experiments to better understand the decision making behavior that is likely in a nuclear crisis.

Bio:

Sharon K. Weiner is Associate Professor at the School of International Service at American University. Her research, teaching, and policy engagement are at the intersection of organizational politics and U.S. national security and focus on nuclear weapons strategy and force structure as well as civil-military relations. A 2018-2020 Carnegie Fellow, Weiner’s current project looks at the relationship between conceptions of deterrence and bureaucratic structure, processes, and culture. Her previous experience includes the White House Office of Management and Budget, the Joint Staff, and both houses of Congress. She holds a PhD in Political Science from MIT’s Security Studies Program.

Moritz Kütt is a Senior Researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg. In his research, he develops new approaches and innovative tools for verification of nuclear arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament agreements. Besides classical instruments, he studies how new technologies (e.g. Open Source Software, Virtual Reality, Robotics) can be used for existing and future verification tasks, and to improve our understanding of nuclear deterrence. Prior to his time in Hamburg, he has been multiple times at Princeton University's Program on Science and Global Security. He holds a PhD in Physics from Technische Universtiät Darmstadt, Germany.