Christopher Lawrence

Georgetown University

Zoom link: https://mit.zoom.us/j/96534475122

Abstract

Scholars of nuclear brinkmanship have long debated whether nuclear crises are dominated by a balance of resolve, or whether nuclear superiority may offset that balance in favor of the more technologically advanced competitor. Recent studies indicate the latter, suggesting that the high accuracy of modern strategic weapons may have ushered in a “new era of counterforce dominance.” The state that masters those weapons, they argue, can steel their resolve if they become confident in their ability to eliminate an adversary’s retaliatory nuclear forces in a disarming first strike. Yet counterforce enthusiasts overlook an important technological headwind: the complexity of advanced weapon systems can confound nuclear planners’ ability to predict their performance in a real nuclear exchange. This challenge is particularly acute for counterforce systems that cannot be tested in operational settings, and whose failure would bring catastrophic consequences on their user. I analyze the uncertainty of counterforce operations by constructing a Monte Carlo simulation of a counterforce strike with modern US strategic missiles on China’s silo-based missile force. I show that small variations in parameters that cannot be known to the attacker with certainty correspond to wide variation in strike outcomes. The resulting uncertainty in costs to the attacker complicates popular strategic theories of damage limitation.

Bio

Christopher Lawrence is Assistant Professor of Science, Technology and Nuclear Security at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. He obtained his PhD in nuclear science and engineering at University of Michigan, and held postdoctoral positions at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation; the Belfer Center at Harvard University; and the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University. His research has appeared in International Security, Social Studies of Science and Journal of Applied Physics.