Timur Kadyshev

Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH), University of Hamburg

Zoom link: https://mit.zoom.us/j/95663169859

Abstract

After the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, missile defense systems became more prominent and sought after on a global scale. Germany has recently decided to purchase the Arrow system developed by Israel. This report derives technical capabilities of the system based on publicly available information, with a focus on the Arrow 3 interceptor. This information is the basis for an analysis of Arrow’s utility to defend Germany within a larger European context against existing and potential missile threats from Russia. The interceptor’s capabilities are assessed in part using a newly developed Missile Defense Footprint Calculation and Comparison program. The results suggest that Arrow 3, while potentially having impressive capabilities against medium-range ballistic missiles, will be useless against the threats listed as reasons for the German purchase, namely existing Russian ballistic missiles.

Bio

Timur Kadyshev is a Senior Researcher with the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH) at the University of Hamburg conducting independent technical research on ballistic and cruise missiles as well as on missile defense capabilities. His current research focuses on technical and political aspects of missile proliferation and missile defenses, with particular interest to capabilities of missile defenses and their effects on the global and regional military balances. Previously he worked as a Research Consultant at Princeton University’s Science and Global Security Program. Before that he worked as a Senior Research Scientist at the Moscow’s Center for Arms Control, Energy, and Environmental Studies, where he conducted research and supervised a course on Technical Aspects of Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. He spent an academic year of 2001/02 as a Science Fellow at Stanford University’s CISAC, and early in his career worked as a Research Fellow at the Defense and Arms Control Studies program at MIT.